Heads or tails?

You have surely heard this question many times, but do not be fooled, it is not a question to which an answer must be found that the applicant expects; no, it is rather a question to which an answer must be given before the solution is known to the latter. And it is only when this answer, both doubtful and irrational, is given, that one can hope to obtain the true answer, the next objective being for the applicant to toss a coin in the air and wait to see which side of the said coin remains visible when, having fallen back to the ground, it no longer moves.

This question therefore calls upon several disciplines, starting with chance, chaos theory and religion. But we will not dwell on this because that is not the subject. We will just try, here, to find the right idea to always get the right answer to this damn question: "heads or tails"?

Let's start with a fun and entertaining little test:

1. Get a coin with at least 2 different sides: a head side and a tail side (before the experiment, it is important, on the one hand, to clearly identify the head side and, on the other hand, to clearly identify the tail side – the reverse is also possible, but less so).
2. Sit on a chair, straighten up and place a flat table in front of you, free of any distracting elements.
3. Read the few important notes below.
4. Go ahead and read the few important notes below.
5. There is no point #6; you can continue reading in the right direction after reading the few important notes below.
6. No, nothing.

Some important notes below:

• Stick to a coin with only two sides; a coin with more than one head and/or tail can make the experiment complicated. So, go for the simplest solution.
• The value of the coin is not important, but remember not to change it during the entire course of our little test, and then be sure to recover the coin if it is made of a precious metal.
• Do not use a piece made of glass or a fragile alloy: we will throw it away.
• Don't do this on a table in front of a bar: the floors are often made of wood and have cracks that would prevent you from going any further in the process.
• Place the table in front of you BEFORE you sit down, it will be easier.
• If you smoke, don't smoke.
• (by the way, if you don't smoke, don't smoke either)
• Go to the next line, there is no point #6.

: sussed-ic setnatropmi seton seuqleuQ

Once you have finished reading the few important notes below (which are now above), check that you have understood points #1, #2 and #3 above. The test can then begin.

It's very simple: Throw your coin in the air (upwards) so that it falls back onto the table. If your coin falls to the ground, it doesn't matter: it should still fall back to the ground after bouncing on the table anyway. If your coin doesn't fall back, come back down to Earth or restore gravity. In any case, it should fall back; if necessary, push on it.

Then look at your coin and, before picking it up, note the visible side of it (it's simple, it's the side on the other side of the side on your side - provided of course that you are placed on the side on the other side of the side opposite to the side you are not on).

Once you have picked up your coin, repeat the operation 996 times. In total, you will have collected 997 answers (including your first throw). This number is important because it corresponds to a minimum number of throws to be able to complete our little test, but it remains less than 1000 and, above all, it is prime. Finally, the answer to our question depends greatly on respecting this number (we will see this later). I therefore invite you to respect the 997 coin throws.

I will of course give you the results of these rolls, but it is vital that you do it for yourself in order to fully understand the intellectual, but also physical, psychological, angry, ascorbic, moral and social difficulty of the operation.

I will therefore consider in the following lines that you have taken your 2 minutes to throw the coin 997 times and note your results.

GOOD !

So you should have gotten the following rolls:

- Number of “heads” sides: 498

- Number of “face” sides: 498

If you did your little test correctly (which I don't doubt for a single moment), throw #384 should have ended up on its side (if not, start the test again). Which makes our 997 coin throws.

You will notice an interesting fact, although it does not bring anything concrete to our experiment: if you do the experiment several times, you will never have the same sides in the same order, but you will see that the final results are always identical. Even stronger: the throw #857 will always fall on the tails side. Try it, you will see.

But let's get back to our little test.

The observation is obvious: the coin has as much chance of landing on heads as on tails. So I ask the question again: "heads or tails?"... How can I be sure of the result?!

There are nine possible answers to this question, but can we seriously consider them?

1. Taking a coin with two identical sides: that would be cheating, and then it would not allow us to provide a credible answer to our subject.
2. Knowing the future: time being an imaginary dimension, it is impossible.
3. Learning to toss the coin: no, because very often, it is not us who toss it.
4. Being God: there can only be one, while there are many of us who want to know the outcome, so it is not an answer to keep.
5. Believing in Santa Claus: that has nothing to do with it, because even Santa Claus doesn't know anything about it.
6. Physics: why not?
7. Mathematics: why not?
8. Quantum mechanics: don't dream! I can't see myself ending up with two pieces without knowing where they are in space!
9. Luck?...

It's annoying, isn't it?

Brief !

Let's try math, then!

There are two fundamental laws: the law of averages, which states that events become more equal over time, and the law of large numbers, which states that as the size of a sample increases, the average of the results approaches the mathematical probability.

These two laws therefore assume that a large number of results are needed to do mathematics that allows us to know an unequivocal answer. The problem is that this is not what we are looking for; we want an answer on a single coin toss.

And physics? I don't think so, because in that case, you would have to be able to do complicated calculations, in your head and immediately, without the help of a computer. Impossible!

So what do we have left? Luck?!

What a dud! What is the definition of luck? It's something like this: "Possibility, probability that something will happen."

Admit that we are off to a good start, because there is only a one in two chance. You still have to find the right one!

So all that remains is to provoke luck, and this, as improbable as it may seem to you, is entirely possible and very easy to achieve, because if many people think that luck exists outside of our own will, it is because it is assimilated to chance.

Well, that's not quite true, because it also depends on our worldview and, most importantly, our choices. Now, take back the coin you tossed 997 times earlier and toss it again, making a choice: heads or tails.

What conclusion do you draw from this new result?

It's obvious, you've tamed luck by tossing your coin 997 times. Now you can do it again as many times as you want, the coin will always fall on the side you chose, as if it obeyed you.

I'll leave you to think about it, because I know it's very disturbing, but at the same time so... magical?

(and if it doesn't, then you didn't actually toss your coin 997 times: you cheated, and that's definitely not compatible with luck)

Editor's note: This study was conducted by professionals who have also played the lottery 997 times. While it works pretty well, don't try this at home again, it takes practice and a certain amount of c…